Turkey Economy: Demographic Profile
 

Although it is slowing, population growth will be high

Assuming annual population growth of just under 1.5%, Turkey's population is forecast to rise from about 73m in 2005 to 78m in 2010, according to UN population projections. The annual rate of population growth has declined in recent decades, but it is expected to fall only marginally in the forecast period, from an average of 1.4% in 2001-05, which remains high by European standards. One reason for the slowdown is the declining birth rate since the 1950s, reflecting an improvement in the educational level of women and the wider use of birth control. From an average of about 19 births per 1,000 inhabitants in 2001-05, the rate is expected to fall to an average of about 16 per 1,000 in 2006-10. However, infant mortality is forecast to decline dramatically from 44 per 1,000 live births in 2001-05 to 37 per 1,000 live births in 2006-10. The crude death rate will remain virtually unchanged in 2005-09 at an average of about six per 1000 population.

Although it is expected to age over the forecast period, the Turkish population will remain young by European standards. In 2005 those aged 14 and under were estimated to make up 26% of the population, while the 65-plus age group accounted for just 6.7%. In 2010 the under-15s will make up about 22% of the population, while the over-65s are expected to account for 6.8%. By way of contrast, in Germany, those aged over 65 are projected to account for almost 20% of the population by the end of the decade.

High rural birth rates, the problems of agriculture, the search for work, the hope of higher living standards and poor security conditions in the rural south-east have encouraged migration towards provincial centres and the wealthiest cities. At the same time, many previously rural areas have become densely populated, particularly in southern and western coastal regions and in the vicinity of major cities. By 2004 about two-thirds of the population was living in urban areas. This figure is expected to rise to almost 70% in 2010. Although earthquake-prone, Istanbul and its surrounding area are likely to become the largest conurbation in Europe--the population of Istanbul province, now synonymous with Istanbul municipality, is already about 11m. The city is rapidly becoming overcrowded. Industrial cities like Bursa, Gaziantep and Konya, as well as a tourism centre, Antalya, are also witnessing particularly rapid population growth.

Female labour force participation rates are low

Turkey has the lowest labour force participation rate of any OECD country. Data from the national statistics office, the Turkish Statistical Institute, for 2005 put the rate at 48.3% (72.2% for men, 24.8% for women). For urban areas, it was 45.5% (71.5% for men, 19.3% for women). Rural women are typically classified as "unpaid family workers" and are therefore counted as workforce participants and employed persons. Hence, urbanisation appears to have led to a fall in female workforce participation. Low workforce participation rates among urban women probably reflect inadequate job opportunities, as well as the persistence of traditional gender roles.