Turkey Economy: Market Opportunities

GDP per head is low, but the market is large

Turkey has a population of about 73m, making it potentially the second-largest market in Europe (behind Germany). The rate of population growth in Turkey is estimated to have averaged 1.4% per year in 2001-05, compared with 1.8% in the 1990s and around 2.5% between 1945 and 1980. About 50% of Turkey's population is under the age of 25. Income levels are rising, especially in urban areas. Almost 70% of the population is now urbanised. Over one-quarter lives in the Marmara region in the north-west, including the Istanbul conurbation and its neighbouring provinces and the fourth-largest city Bursa. Also still growing rapidly are the populations of Ankara and Izmir, the second- and third-largest cities, and most other larger provincial centres, particularly those of the south and south-east. In the south-east, birth rates are still relatively high, and internal migration away from conflict areas has accelerated urbanisation. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Turkey's population to grow by about 1.3% per year during the forecast period, well above the rate of growth that will be experienced in most European countries.

GDP per head has risen sharply since the 2001 financial crisis and recession, although it remains lower than in the central European countries. After declining sharply in 2001 to US$2,100, GDP per head (at market exchange rates) recovered to US$2,600 in 2002, then went on rising to reach an estimated US$5,000 in 2005, assisted by the continuing strength of the lira against the US dollar in real terms. Under our baseline forecast of average annual GDP growth of about 5% in 2006-10 and population growth of 1.3% a year, we expect GDP per head to be in the region of US$6,300 by the end of the forecast period. This is still low, at less than 20% of the projected EU25 average in 2010. It should also be mentioned, however, that Turkey's GDP data may fail to capture the full effects of the country's large informal sector--which amounts to around 50% of the formal sector's GDP, according to the government.

Spending power varies greatly from consumer to consumer

GDP per head shows wide variations from region to region, between rural and urban areas, and within major cities. National data for 2002 indicate that GDP per head was nearly 11 times higher in industrialised Kocaeli, adjacent to Istanbul, than in the eastern province of Mus. According to the household expenditure survey for 2004 by the national statistics office, the Turkish Statistical Institute, the quintile (20%) of households with the highest incomes was responsible for 38% of consumer spending. The other quintiles were responsible for 22.7%, 17.2%, 12.9% and 9.1% of consumer spending respectively. Income distribution data for the same year show that the top quintile enjoyed 46.2% of income, followed by 21.9%, 15.2%, 10.7% and 6% for the successive quintiles. This represented a slight improvement compared with 2002 and 2003. On this basis, inequality in Turkey was much higher than in most developed countries or in central Europe and also higher than in many developing countries, although not as high as in some Latin American countries with comparable levels of national income per head. These inequalities--especially the geographical ones--are unlikely to decline significantly in the forecast period. The Gini coefficient, which is used to measure income concentration, fell from 44 in 2002 to 40 in 2004 (0 represents perfect income equality, and 100 perfect income inequality), according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. However, this may not be indicative of a long-term trend, as sharp shifts in the currency and interest rates in Turkey will continue to have substantially different effects on the disposable income of different income groups.